I know what your thinking. Apple overtake Windows in the next 5 years? Windows has had a stranglehold on the landscape of home computing, but as time and technology has passed, has Windows jumped the shark? Is it possible the goliath Bill Gates developed gradually outdated itself, and made itself irrelevant by it’s lack of innovation and control?

1. Overall market share is on the rise

“Market Share” reports that as of December 2006 Mac’s market share is 5.67% which is up a .29% from the month before, and 1.34% since August 2006. 1.34% is 4 months is phenomenal. If Apple Macintosh continues this trend in the next the year will be at 9.69% at the end of 2007 and 20.10% of all operating systems by 2011. This alone will put Mac in great position for the home-based user market. I propose that this and the following factors will assist the rising market share.

2. iPod v. Zune (or other MP3 players)

iPods have become as American as apple pie and baseball. How often do you see a jogger with a color coordinated Nano attached to their armband, or a runner with a shuffle clipped to their outfit? iPods have become a staple of modern America. They are inexpensive, high quality, high density, and overall well made product. Simplicity and style make this little gadget an absolute powerhouse. How does that affect Microsoft?

The Zune is Microsoft’s “iPod killer”. It’s proved to be nothing spectacular, and the functionality of it has really become a null set. The Bluetooth transfer won’t transfer all the songs because of DRM rights. They are expensive, and bottom lines just aren’t as cool as the iPod.

The iPod has developed a social appeal. It comes in colors, can be engraved. Matching socks, covers, clutches, designer bags. They come dedicated to bands, or linked with cars. I can download video and play it on my iPod, play games, keep my schedule. Even colleges have got in on the act. Duke University gives an iPod to every new student, so that they can download the lectures onto their iPod for better study habits.

The iPod is so much more than a mp3 player, it’s a status symbol, it’s a movement. This causes a definite “halo effect” surrounding the iPod. If the iPod is this freakin’ cool, what about the Apple TV, the iPhone and ultimately what about a Mac?

3. Windows Vista

Windows Vista has started leaking it’s price structure. $99 for Vista Home Basic, $159 Vista Home Premium, $259 for Windows ultimate is how they break down. What’s it really offering? Some people pan it, calling it a Longhorn 2, which would be a touch over rated. Some people declare it just a better way to piggyback “Viruses, Infections, Spyware, Trojans, Adware”, an abbreviation of V.I.S.T.A. People have even argued the name means “Hen” in Latvian.

When is too much too much? Finally they put a graphic intensive operating system up, years after Apple has done so. Apple has everything in house so out of the box, they can tell you that the software you buy will work. Vista has no promise that the Adobe suite will even work on Vista out of the box. All Photoshop users will have to pump their breaks about even using their software until an update comes out.

4. Usability

BSOD, the infamous blue screen of death. Control, Alt, Delete and restart explorer. IEEXPLORER is not running. I don’t believe an Apple user knows much of what those mean. They press the power button, move their Mighty Mouse down to their Dock and their applications appear. Icons off the desktop mean less RAM being used, and better speed. As preposterous as this is, it’s painfully true.

Apple computers don’t install files into registry, which if you de-frag will send your computer into a death spiral. You turn on your computer and you know it’s okay instantly, it’ll smile at you. Un-installing is as simple as dragging the program icon to the trash, and the computer deletes it off. There is no mess, making it virtually indestructible. Apple prided it’s self on the ability for anyone to be able to sit down for the first time and navigate without much hassle. Microsoft never understood that, and Vista doesn’t seem to stray far from the path of the past.

5. Power of the bloggers

I Blog, it’s what I do. I understand what trends are and how to ride them into a successful path. Apple is the hip thing. It’s pleasing to the eye, easy to use, fast, durable, and fun. People look at you as a family when you purchase an Apple. Apple users put the stickers they get in their new computer boxes in their car windows. Apple knows that if they stay on the cutting edge, and keep loyal people around them, you can’t fail. They don’t sell out, and that dogged attention to their fans keeps people coming back. iPods are chrome, Apple logos light up with a functional happiness that everyone around you knows. Your laptop is part of you, and everyone sees that you are hip, trendy and in the know.

Apple is elitist. From the Genius bars at their store, which gave out Evian water to their shoppers, to the chrome iPod backs that give them a sense of fashionable bling. Bloggers love the fact that they can be set apart from the rest. A cut above and beyond the normal user. If something is easy, strong, and makes them stand out, why not use that to their advantage. To be on the cutting edge, breeds success. Apple gushes confidence at the seams, and anyone who is caught using one usually does as well.

Overall, Microsoft put itself out too far. The early technology push really benefited their company as they had the money to throw at technology. Now that Apple is posting $1 billion dollar profits, they have money to throw away, yet they don’t. Apple sees computer use as a lifestyle, something you should enjoy, but not control you. Something that says what you do, not who you are. It should show your work ethic, but not become a work ethic. As people find the ease of use, the linking of their lifestyle, the ability to record TV, bring it on their iPod as they commute to work, use their iPhone to schedule all your meetings, and your Macbook Pro to run anything you could need to. Why would you buy a T-Mobile Motorola phone, a Dell Inspirion and a TiVo, and attempt to connect them with stress and failure? Apple levels the playing field makes the interchangeability and mobility the most important thing. With these points alone, Apple puts up almost 2% market share growth each year. If they do that for 5 years, you will see “switching” won’t be an exception, it will be accepted, and almost old hat as people abandon the Microsoft “Vista” for a clearer view of the Apple future.